Macro Minute

Inflation is still above the Fed's target, but the recent deviations from target have been close to what one would expect when the Fed has effectively stabilized inflation around its target.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment index fell to 61.3 in November versus 63.8 in October, seemingly due to high price concerns.

This post provides a look at where retail inventory-to-sales ratios may hint at discounts for price-conscious consumers this holiday season.

Is it possible durable goods spending will settle above the pre-pandemic trend line? If so, what might this consumption shift mean for the aggregate economy?

How does the latest monthly data affect progress versus the Fed's long-run 2 percent average inflation target?

Real disposable personal income growth has been negative for the past three months following 11 consecutive months of gains. This week's post dives into the drivers of this decline.

In this week's post, we explore alternative series that might have been used to measure the strength of consumer demand in the absence of official measures of personal consumption expenditure (PCE).

In this week's post, we look at the impact of unions on wage gains for workers and what trends suggest for the road ahead.

Out of the many components that make up the PPI, one particularly relevant item from the perspective of shoppers may be the PPI's trade indexes.

In three of the last four months, inflation has been within the prediction interval based on data from the pre-pandemic era, when inflation was stable near the Fed's 2 percent target.

In our dynamic economy, new businesses are opened, and older businesses shut down continually over time. How does the BLS account for this churn when reporting jobs growth?

As the economy continues to normalize from the shock of the pandemic, what changes have we seen in terms of mothers' labor force participation?

How do the Fed's interest rate hikes affect bank lending standards? One way to find out is to directly ask banks whether they've tightened lending standards to borrowers.

While the level of inflation-adjusted household spending remains high, recent monthly growth rates are no longer as buoyant as before.

Household savings have been a tailwind to spending and inflation, but is that tailwind finally dissipating?

In this week's post, we look at the data to see which businesses are driving this picture of lean inventories relative to sales.

April's advance monthly retail sales report showed consumer demand expanding to kick off the second quarter of 2023. Why do some economists and economy-watchers emphasize these core retail sales?

With negotiations still underway, some unconventional ideas are being suggested in case a U.S. spending deal can't be made. Today, we'll look at one such suggestion: minting a high-dollar platinum coin.

While auto sales have been trending up over the past several months, we'll look into a couple of reasons why the future may not be so bright.

Recent inflation readings continue to come in below their COVID-19 era highs, but has the persistence of inflation also come down?

Our preliminary findings suggest that, across industries, the decline in job openings may be more related to hiring challenges rather than quit rates.

Smaller businesses' demand for workers has made up a considerable part of the surge in job openings observed over the past two years. But some data suggest that surge is beginning to wane.

Indexes of market rents are currently showing a significant slowing versus their peaks in 2022, but the rent and owners' equivalent rent (OER) components of inflation continue to rise.

Will strong hiring continue in the leisure and hospitality industry?

This post explores what impact the personal savings rate could have on households and their spending.

How can a plethora of individual price changes in the economy be combined into a single number that represents the overall change in the cost of living? The BLS accomplishes this with the CPI.

Some workers may continue to see larger than normal pay increases as wage differentials across sectors revert to their pre-pandemic norms. These increases, however, aren't distributed evenly across sectors.

Are households cutting back on spending, and if so, where?

Debt is bouncing back as consumers borrow more to pay today's higher prices. So, how has consumer debt trended in recent months?

For our first post in 2023, we pick up right where we left off: discussing inflation